The demand for steel has not yet been fulfilled, and the pressure on bifocals is obvious

2024-03-19 10:59

Coal mining gradually resumed production after the festival, but by the two sessions and the tightening of safety supervision, the supply was slow to recover, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was maintained at a high level. Although there are coal mine accidents again, but in the weak production of hot metal, the price drop is obvious.

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According to the steel joint caliber, the average daily output of molten iron in the week of 3.08-3.14 was 2.2082 million tons, which was still at a low level compared with the same period. Although steel plants have point-to-point profits, but for the future market demand, so that it does not dare to resume production. According to the consulting company forecast, the average daily output of molten iron in March was about 238, and the spontaneous maintenance of steel mills led to the seasonal recovery of molten iron expected before the two sessions has not yet been seen. In terms of coking coal supply, under the main line of ensuring safety, domestic coal mine end production is relatively slow, especially the recent recurrence of coal mine accidents in Shanxi Luliang Lishi Zhongyang and Anhui, so domestic coking coal supply is still reduced throughout the year. The current pressure is mainly in the Mongolian coal, 288 port inventory reached a record high, and the Mongolian coal long association price has become an important support for the disk price in the process of decline. Before the recovery of demand, steel mills and coking plants still maintain a low inventory strategy, just need to purchase.

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In general, the static supply and demand pattern of coking coal is not too bad, but the steel mill is expected to resume production is weak, the downstream storage space is limited, the price is going down, the demand is passively suppressed, and the steel demand is not qualitative and the absolute price of coking coal is not reduced to attract speculative demand before the entry, there is upward pressure on the disk. From the perspective of the entire black industry chain, the coking coal supply side still has a story to tell, so once the demand is expected to be poor, then coking coal is still the best variety of elasticity in the black chain.